Predictions for 2017
Last year, I challenged myself to make several predictions about what will happen in 2016. I’d like to think my predictions were fairly accurate; however, I viewed them as “safe” predictions.
This year, I’m challenging myself to have strong conviction on the future of tech. It goes without saying, but nobody can predict the future. Instead, these are my thoughts on where we are heading.
Mobile esports
Mobile esports will have their best year yet. Titles like Vainglory and Clash Royale are helping to lead the charge in this space, and I expect many new entrants to emerge this year.
In many ways, I think mobile esports has potential to eclipse PC esports. This year will play a pivotal role in making this possible.
Rather than simply trying to port successful PC games to mobile devices, it is critical that games are designed with mobile users in mind.
For example:
- One-handed gameplay
- Short, yet competitive matches
- Push notifications to invite friends to matches
There is a tremendous opportunity for a short match, high intensity mobile MOBA (multi-player online battle arena) and shooter game. In 2017, I expect several new mobile game publishers to emerge and pave the future for mobile esports.
Vertical OTT Platforms
This past year, I’ve spent dozens of hours obsessing over vertical over-the-top (OTT) video platforms. I suspect that many investors are starting to eye the space as well, but it is no secret that people love consuming video content.
Crunchyroll is perhaps the most well-known vertical OTT platform. Crunchyroll is an OTT platform specifically focused on being the best place to consume anime content. There has always been a huge community for anime; however, before Crunchyroll, many were forced to find or consume this content via sketchy sites or illegal methods.
Following the Crunchyroll model, there are hundreds — if not thousands — of incredibly strong niche communities that want to consume original content. As this space starts to heat up, I expect Netflix, Facebook, and YouTube to start launching niche video communities.
Assistants:
Whether it’s messaging bots or voice-enabled bots, like Amazon Echo or Google Home — it seems like everyone in Silicon Valley is talking about bots. I prefer to view most “bots,” as assistants that enhance our life.
re: Messaging Assistants
There are hundreds of companies attempting to tackle this space. However, I expect very few to survive the next couple of years.
In 2017, I expect Apple to release their own version of Facebook M. Additionally, I expect Apple and Facebook to release their own smart assistants that sits on-top of messaging platforms.
For example, if I texted my friend: “want to go see La La Land tonight?” The messaging platform will automatically suggest nearby theaters and showtimes. This will start to pave the way for introducing smart assistants into our lives, and opening the floodgates of new ideas.
re: Voice Assistants
If the past few months taught us anything, it’s that everyday consumers love Amazon Echo and Google Home. Although consumers love them, I am quite bearish on their growth over the next year.
Specifically, I think Echo and Home will struggle with continued utility. Most, if not all, of my friends simply use their Echo and Home for alarms, trivia, and playing music. It will be extremely interesting to watch how this space matures over the next year.
Influencers
YouTube, Twitch, and Facebook are currently in a silent competition to get creators to use their platform. Influencers are arguably the backbone of these platforms. Viewers of these influencers are the next generation of creators. Thus, they will likely create content on the platform that they consumed the content on.
As it stands right now, YouTube offers the best monetization opportunity for influencers via ads.
I expect this dual between Facebook and YouTube to heat up even more. In 2017, I predict that Facebook will roll out pre-roll ads for influencers. If Facebook follows their same playbook as FB Live, they will end up paying many influencers to start producing and distributing content exclusively on Facebook.
Truthfully, I think the platform that wins here is the one with the best monetization tools. Facebook desperately needs to roll out a donation and subscription platform for influencers using FB Live. Sustainable and creative ways for creators to monetize is key. I expect YouTube, Twitch, and Facebook to devote a lot more time here.
Autonomous Vehicles — SaaS Suppliers
As autonomous vehicles start to become a very real reality, a new wave of ancillary businesses will emerge. Enterprise software companies will become the next generation of suppliers to OEMs.
Each major OEM will begin to focus on their core competency of mass manufacturing vehicles, while seeking out and relying on key suppliers/technology companies to support their vision of bringing autonomous vehicles to consumers.
i.e. Proprietary mapping data, or precision GPS tracking.
I expect several large exits within this space over the next year, and a lot more venture-backed businesses to emerge.
IPOs
Snap’s successful IPO will lead the charge for the year and encourage many other “unicorns” to follow suit.
Nontraditional Acquirers
Walmart, GM, and Unilever all made billion dollar acquisitions of technology companies in 2016. As these large incumbents start to pay attention to the future, it’s only fair to assume that many other Fortune 100 companies will follow suit.
Privacy
Consumers will start to repeatedly and loudly voice their concerns regarding privacy from the Big Four. The fear of Amazon and Google listening to everything in our home, coupled with all of the existing data that Facebook, Google, and Apple have on us will start to scare a lot of consumers. Especially as ad-targeting becomes creepily-specific.
This is where I think I think we are headed in 2017, would love to hear your thoughts. Happy New Year!
If you are ever interested in chatting more about VC, startups, OR if you want me to write about a specific topic - I'd love to hear from you.Twitter: @blakeir
